Ruto’s 2027 fate hangs on upcoming by-elections

NAIROBI, Kenya Aug 6 – President William Ruto is facing a tough political moment, and the upcoming by-elections could either strengthen his hold on power or mark the start of his downfall ahead of the 2027 elections.

There are 22 vacant seats: five in the National Assembly, one in the Senate, and sixteen in county assemblies and the IEBC is getting ready to take Kenyans back to the ballot.

But this is no ordinary vote. It is a litmus test of President Ruto’s rule, a mini referendum disguised as routine democracy.

Already, political temperatures are boiling.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, now a fierce critic of the regime, is leading the charge against President Ruto through his Democracy for Citizens (DCP) Party.

He claims the ruling UDA party is arm-twisting the IEBC to delay the by-elections a sign, he argues, that Ruto is afraid of facing the people.

“They are not ready. They know the ground has shifted. That’s why they are buying time,” the party’s Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala alleged on Tuesday.

The IEBC has denied any interference, insisting it remains an independent body guided by the law.

The by-elections on paper are meant to fill seats left empty because of deaths, resignations, or court decisions, but politically, they are turning into a clash between a wounded regime and a resurgent opposition.

President Ruto’s popularity has taken a hit.

From skyrocketing fuel prices, controversial tax policies to abetted corruption, many Kenyans, especially the youth are openly vowing to vote him out in 2027.

“We voted for him in 2022 with hope. But now, look at the economy. The cost of living is unbearable,” says Mary Atieno, a mama mboga in Nairobi.

A poor showing in the by-elections could deepen that resentment, embolden the opposition, and fracture President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition just two years into office.

Once President Ruto’s right-hand man, Gachagua is now his loudest critic, rallying discontented leaders from the Mt. Kenya region and beyond.

His party sees the by-elections as their launching pad to challenge President Ruto head-on in 2027.

Some leaders close to President Ruto have hinted that they might rig the 2027 elections in his favor if he struggles to get enough support, claims that, though unofficial, have sparked serious concern.

The IEBC has warned against such rhetoric, calling it “dangerous and irresponsible.”

“We deal with actual numbers, not political noise. The Commission will not be used to manipulate any outcome,” said IEBC Chair Ethekon Edung, during a recent media engagement.

As pressure mounts, top government officials are showing signs of nervous bravado.

“It’s not easy to remove a sitting African president,” said Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, in what many saw as a defiant shot at President Ruto’s opponents.

But critics say such statements reek of arrogance and only prove that the ruling class is rattled by a shifting political landscape.

As Kenyans await the IEBC’s official by-election calendar, all eyes are on the numbers.

Will the voters use this chance to punish Ruto’s government, or will the President manage to hold his ground and show that he still has the people’s trust?

The by-elections may not change the balance of power in Parliament overnight but they could redraw the political map heading into 2027.

And in the world of Kenyan politics, momentum is everything.