Kenya Kwanza’s Dwindling Promise — and a Thin Thread of Hope » Capital News

In the lead-up to the 2022 elections, Kenyans were not simply bombarded with lofty promises, as in the past. They were offered dreams that felt reachable — promises that resonated with Wanjiku’s everyday struggles. The Kenya Kwanza campaign captured the hopes of millions, vowing to dismantle systems of exclusion and deliver dignity to the ordinary citizen.

For those at the bottom of the economic pyramid, the vision was irresistible: a promise of dignity, even prosperity. Yet today, those same Kenyans are asking hard questions — not because things remained stagnant, but because life under this regime has arguably worsened.

Those who overwhelmingly placed their faith in this leadership have, over the past year, watched their belief crumble. Across towns and cities, the lament is almost uniform: payslips raided mercilessly, a battered healthcare system serving corrupt interests, a broken higher education model tilted against the poor, and a general slide into a darker, more insecure socio-economic space.

This sense of betrayal cuts deeper precisely because the promises once felt so personal, so believable. The anger that fueled the Gen Z-led civil disobedience was not born simply from bad governance, but from the sharp sting of disillusionment — the realization that the real hustlers were deceived to enthrone a regime that now responds with brute force, abductions, and disappearances.

Yet even in this bleak atmosphere, a potential reprieve has emerged. The President’s recent visit to China offers the regime something it has lacked since its inception: a tangible narrative of progress.

The deals inked — particularly the dualling of the Nairobi–Nakuru–Mau Summit–Malaba highway and the long-delayed funding for Phase 2B of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) extension to Kisumu — are no small wins. They are major infrastructural projects that could, if properly managed, be transformative.

For a government desperate to demonstrate delivery, these projects offer more than ribbon-cutting ceremonies. They provide a thin but crucial lifeline — a chance to claim real progress amid mounting public anger.

But the critical question remains: Will these projects truly change the fortunes of this regime? Will the loans and investments finally uplift Wanjiku, or will they simply become expensive trophies, swallowed up by corruption, mismanagement, and cronyism — the most glaring monuments of this administration?

There is also the uncomfortable contradiction that cannot be ignored: this is the same leadership that campaigned fiercely against borrowing and bloated government structures. Today, it borrows heavily while expanding a broad-based, amorphous government that mocks ideals like separation of powers and democratic oversight.

Drawing from Dambisa Moyo’s seminal book, Dead Aid, critics warn that loans to regimes without accountability and institutional checks do not foster development; they fund oppression, enrich elites, and leave nations poorer and more vulnerable.

The imminent risk we face following these mega projects is clear: without effective checks and balances, without an empowered Parliament and Judiciary, loans and aid become little more than free money for the ruling elite. It is telling that rogue elements are already mounting an onslaught against the Judiciary — the one institution still constructively pushing back against executive excesses.

The regime would save itself by embracing, not stifling, criticism. Leaders and ordinary citizens alike must have the liberty and latitude to critique the government. Constructive criticism is essential if these loans are to serve the public interest rather than entrench political survival tactics.

Otherwise, the likelihood is all too familiar: corruption will flourish, patronage networks will deepen, and the mega projects will become political props rather than engines of real development. This could ultimately spell the regime’s downfall.

Kenya has already seen the dangers of using infrastructure projects as mere symbols of “development” — often poorly planned, overpriced, or unsustainable. The fertilizer scandal — where donated fertilizer was sold to naïve farmers by regime-connected mandarins — was only one recent example of expedient narratives masking deep rot.

To redeem itself, the regime must manage these Chinese-funded projects with utmost transparency and accountability. The President must guarantee that Kenya will not be shackled with an unsustainable debt burden that will haunt future generations.

Granted, the SGR extension from Nairobi to Kisumu, Malaba, and into Uganda deepens China’s footprint in East Africa, anchoring its Belt and Road Initiative even more firmly on the continent. But Kenya must leverage this critical logistics corridor from Mombasa into Central Africa and beyond into the Atlantic hinterland.

This demands a bold shift: investing in a modern port at Kisumu, entrenching manufacturing in the region, and ensuring that this corridor is not just an import highway, but a robust export pathway. Establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) along the corridor is critical. Governors heaping praise on the President must now exercise leadership by working collaboratively to develop SEZs that genuinely uplift local communities.

An opportunity presents itself — to deliver real, life-changing development at both national and county levels. A mindset shift is required: the regime must stop focusing on what it is “doing” and instead focus on real, tangible changes in the lives of Wanjiku.

Only then can this thin thread of hope, born of China’s investments, be woven into a stronger fabric of national renewal.

Dr. Hesbon Owila is a Media and Political Communications Researcher.